Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!
Forex Market Trading Insight: EUR/USD Rallies…Why?
Currencies / Forex Trading
Feb 23, 2012 – 06:40 AM
By: EWI
On February 16, EUR/USD, the euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively traded forex pair, surged over 170 pips, from below $1.30 to above $1.3150.
The explanations for the strong rally boiled down to “hopes” that the Greek bond-swap deal would be reached.
As we’ve pointed out before, explanations such as these make sense only in retrospect. They tell you nothing about tomorrow’s trend.
On February 15, while EUR/USD was still in the downtrend, Elliott Wave International’s forex-focused Currency Specialty Service posted the following intraday forecast:
EURUSD (Intraday) Posted On: Feb 15 2012 1:28PM ET / Feb 15 2012 6:28PM GMT Last Price: 1.3068
[Approaching a bottom]
The decline from 1.3322 looks mature, though there is no evidence it is complete. Allow for a dip below 1.3027 (to complete a flat correction) but we’re focusing on identifying the upcoming reversal. A rally in five waves at small degree would do the trick.
As expected, EUR/USD indeed dropped below $1.3027 before reversing upward on February 16.
The bullish February 15 forecast was based strictly on the Elliott wave pattern you see in the chart above. The converging trendlines labeled (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) mark an ending diagonal triangle, which only forms when the trend gets exhausted, and a reversal is near.
This Elliott wave pattern warned one day before the EUR/USD rally began that the collective bias of the forex players about the euro would soon shift from bearish to bullish.
See our forex-focused Currency Specialty Service in action for yourself — FREE — during EWI’s Forex FreeWeek. Details below.
Now through noon Eastern time February 29, you can get a full week of FREE access to EWI’s trader-focused Currency Specialty Service (valued at $494/month).
That means you’ll get to see all the charts, analysis, videos and forecasts for the world’s most traded currency pairs — at ZERO cost to you!
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Forex Market Insight: EUR/USD Rallies…Why?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.
© 2005-2012 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk – The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis Forecasting online publication.
Comments
ROUNDUP: The Week’s Forex Industry News
By Alexandra Fletcher
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)–As investors worry about the implementation risks of the EUR130 billion Greek bailout deal, it’s easy to lose track of all the latest foreign-exchange industry news. Here’s a roundup of the week’s news:
PEOPLE:
– The wealth division of Barclays Bank PLC (BCS) has hired Julian Wantling as head …
Forex Flash: EUR/USD reluctant ahead of ECB’s LTRO – Saxo Bank
The Basics of How Money is Made Trading FX
Trading currency in the Forex market centers around the basic concepts of buying and selling.
Let’s take the idea of buying first. What if you bought something (it could literally be almost anything…a house, a piece of jewelry or a stock) and it went up in value. If you sold it at that point, you would have made a profit…the difference between what you paid originally and the greater value that the item is worth now.
Currency trading is the same way…
Let’s say you want to buy the AUDUSD currency pair. If the AUD goes up in value relative to the USD and then you sell it, you will have made a profit. A trader in this example would be buying the AUD and selling the USD at the same time.
For example if the AUDUSD pair was bought at 1.0615 and the pair moved up to 1.0700 at the time that the trade was closed/exited, the profit on the trade would have been 85 pips. (See the chart below…)
Had the pair moved down to 1.0600 before the trade was closed, the loss on the trade would have been 40 pips.
Also, it makes no difference which currency pair you are trading. If the price of the currency you are buying goes up from the time you bought it, you will have made a profit.
Here is another example using the AUD. In this case we still want to buy the AUD but let’s do this with the EURAUD currency pair. In this instance we would sell the pair. We would be selling the EUR and buying the AUD simultaneously. Should the AUD go up relative to the EUR we would profit as we bought the AUD.
In this example if we sold the EURAUD pair at 1.2320 and the price moved down to 1.2250 when we closed the position, we would have made a profit of 70 pips. Had the pair moved up instead and we closed out the position at 1.2360 we would have had a loss of 40 pips on the trade.
Remember, we are always buying or selling the currency on the left side of the pair. If we buy the currency on the left side, which is called the base currency, we are selling the one on the right side which is called the cross or counter currency. The opposite would be true if we were selling the currency on the left side.
Now let’s take a look at how a trader can make a profit by selling a currency pair. This concept is a little trickier to understand than buying. It is based on the idea of selling something that you borrowed as opposed to selling something that you own.
In the case of currency trading, when taking a sell position you would borrow the currency in the pair that you were selling from your broker (this all takes place seamlessly within the trading station when the trade is executed) and if the price went down, you would then sell it back to the broker at the lower price. The difference between the price at which you borrowed it (the higher price) and the price at which you sold it back to them (the lower price) would be your profit.
For example, let’s say a trader believes that the USD will go down relative to the JPY. In this case the trader would want to sell the USDJPY pair. They would be selling the USD and buying the JPY at the same time. The trader would be borrowing the USD from their broker when they execute the trade. If the trade moved in their favor the JPY would increase in value and the USD would decrease. At the point where they closed out the trade, their profits from the JPY increasing in value would be used to pay back the broker for the borrowed USD at the now lower price. After paying back the broker, the remainder would be their profit on the trade.
For example, let’s say the trader shorted the USDJPY pair at 76.28. If the pair did in fact move down and the trader closed/exited the position at 75.81, the profit on the trade would be 47 pips.
On the other hand, if the pair was shorted at 76.28 and the pair did not move down but rather it moved up to 76.50 when the position was closed, there would be a loss on the trade of 22 pips.
In a nutshell, this how you can make a profit from selling something that you do not own.
In wrapping up, if you buy a currency pair and it moves up, that trade would show a profit. If you sell a currency pair and it moves down, that trade would show a profit.
—Written by Richard Krivo
To contact Richard Krivo, please email instructor@dailyfx.com . You can follow Richard on Twitter@RKrivoFX .
To be added to Richard’s distribution list please send an email with “Notification” in the subject line to rkrivo@fxcm.com .
The Future Of FX Automated Trading
Tradervox.com (Dublin) - In an industry where every nanosecond matters and where high-speed…
For more information, read our latest forex news and reports.
China Forex Regulator: Inflows Likely To Slow Next Few Years
— China saw an estimated $47.4 billion of net capital outflows in the fourth quarter
— Outflows were due to market volatility and “scattered” yuan appreciation expectations, the foreign exchange regulator says
— Net inflows are likely to keep slowing over the next few years
— Volatile capital flows “both a challenge and an opportunity”
(Adds analysis and additional content from the regulator’s statement throughout.)
BEIJING (Dow Jones)–China’s …
FOREX-Yen drops to 7-mth low vs dollar; euro pressured
(Updates prices, adds comment, changes dateline previous
SINGAPORE)
* Yen falls to 7-month low versus dollar of 80.30 yen
* Technical resistance to dollar gains seen around 80.94 yen
* Euro zone services PMI disappoints, Greece concerns
persist
LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) – The yen hit a seven-month
low against the dollar on Wednesday and looked set to remain on
the defensive after recent monetary easing from the Bank of
Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX – news) , while the euro struggled to make headway against the
greenback following Greece’s bailout deal.
The single currency also came under pressure from a euro
zone services sector flash PMI survey that fell more than
expected to 49.4, below the 50 level that signifies contraction,
raising concerns the region may slide into recession later in
the year.
The dollar hit a session high of 80.30 yen, its
highest level since mid-July with traders citing buying by
Japanese importers and offshore players.
The yen has been under pressure since the BoJ’s surprise
move to boost its asset buying programme last week. Some
analysts said the move could mark the end of the yen’s long-term
uptrend that prompted Japanese authorities to intervene in the
currency market three times last year.
Comments from a Japanese Ministry of Finance official, that
market speculation which could contribute to the yen’s rise was
persisting and Japan would respond appropriately, added to broad
yen weakness.
The euro rose to a three-month peak against the Japanese
currency of 106.33, its highest since mid-November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E – news) .
“I find it quite notable that the (Japanese) move to
increase the amount of quantitative easing has had a far more
sustained effect than the shock and awe of intervention,” said
Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York (Frankfurt: A0DKRK – news)
Mellon.
“Technicians out there might argue we have broken the
(dollar) downtrend from summer 2007.”
The dollar has risen roughly 5 percent against the yen so
far in February, putting it on track for its biggest monthly
percentage gain since March 2010. Further gains could be slow,
with exporters looking to sell into a stronger dollar.
Technical charts showed the dollar facing strong resistance
from the top of the weekly Ichimoku cloud around 80.94 yen,
after moving above the bottom of the cloud at 79.73 yen.
The dollar has not managed to stay above the weekly Ichimoku
cloud for any sustained period since mid-2007, and a breach of
that resistance could give the dollar additional momentum
against the yen.
In addition to the BOJ’s monetary easing, the yen has come
under pressure this month after data showed that Japan’s current
account surplus — a major and constant support for the yen –
fell to a 15-year low last year.
“The yen is also likely facing some downward pressure in
the near-term from the rising price of Brent crude oil which is
resulting in a deterioration in Japan’s terms of trade,” said
strategists at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi (Frankfurt: 857124 – news) in a note.
GREECE CONCERNS PERSIST
The euro retreated from near two-week highs hit against the
dollar the previous day as optimism over the long-awaited Greek
bailout deal reached early on Tuesday gave way to concerns about
economic growth and implementation risks.
The euro was down 0.1 percent at $1.3221, from
Tuesday’s high of $1.3293, its highest level since Feb. 9. It
faces resistance at $1.3306, the 100-day moving average.
“The euro had priced in a lot of the good news, in the sense
that it had priced in already some form of agreement. It’s not
surprising to see it struggling to break higher,” said Mitul
Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy for Credit
Agricole in Hong Kong.
While Greece’s aid package helped to ease fears of an
immediate default, the country’s economic outlook remained
clouded and threatened to derail its efforts to meet tough
cost-cutting measures.
Parliaments in three countries that have been most critical
of bailouts – Germany, the Netherlands and Finland – must now
approve the package, raising concerns it will be held up.
The growth-correlated Australian dollar was last
down 0.1 percent at US$1.0652, weighed by data showing that
China’s manufacturing sector contracted in February for the
fourth straight month..
(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano; editing by Stephen
Nisbet)
Forex: EUR/GBP trading off 2-month highs
<!–TITOL:
Forex: EUR/GBP trading off 2-month highs
FITITOL–>
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) – EUR/GBP finally managed to break above 0.8400 on Wednesday to peak at a 2-month high of 0.8458 before ending the American session just below at 0.8453, recording a 1.15% gain on the day.
The rally came on the back of sterling weakness across the board after the Bank of England Minutes showed that members voted for a larger expansion of the bond purchase program than the one announced earlier this month. As a result, GBP is already the worst performer year-to-date and month-to-date out of a group of G10 currencies, behind USD and JPY.
At time of writing, EUR/GBP is consolidating off the highs, threatening to break onto higher ground in the midst of a comatose session in FX markets. If the rally persists in the hours ahead, next resistance is noted at 0.8483 (10 Nov 2011 low), while, to the downside, support is seen at 0.8420 (29 Dec 2011 high).
Forex – EUR/USD, S&P Futures Flows: Fitch downgrades Greece to “C”, market …
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said the current instability is damaging Australia. “Faceless men” running Labour Party. Abbott comments after resignation of Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd.
On FX, AUD/USD edging up to day highs of 1.0686, up from 1.0660-65, ignoring news of Kevin Rudd resignation, Though good to watch for any fresh challenges for PM Julia Gillard Government. AUD supported by AUD/JPY, USD/JPY demand from Mrs Watanabes, as good Japanese buying pushed USD/JPY above key 80.00 option barriers to 6-half month highs, helped by talks of good THB/JPY demand.
AUD/USD offers at 1.0690-1.0700, some stops above 1.0705-10, as short term players a tad short after pushing AUD/USD to 3-week lows of 1.0610. Good sized bids from Aussie exporters, corporates, miners, French, European and options bids ahead of 1.0600 optio barriers. Good to watch for any political uncertainty in Australia, after resignation of Kevin Rudd. AUD/SGD at 1.3415-25, off the 2-week lows around 1.3375-85. USD/SGD at 1.2559-62 on lower USD/Asians, led by USD/THB, but support at 1.2500. AUD/SGD eye dip toward 1.3250, after reverrsing from its 20-year highs around 1.3600, high since 1992, WL